Buying a Home Now Is A No-Brainer

Is now the right time to invest in a house?
Trick question. Actually, it's two questions.
Question No. 1: Is now the time to buy?
Question No. 2: Is buying a house a good investment?



The first answer is easy: With a few exceptions, if you have 20% to put down and good credit, now is a great time to buy. That's been the case all year, and I'd argue that we're probably closer to the end than to the beginning of the really great time. Let me explain.

Back in January home prices had dropped 28% from their peak. More important, interest rates were at historical lows. By locking in a mortgage for 15 or 30 years on a value-priced home, you were getting an incredible deal, even if home prices decreased.

At the time, I thought that prices and rates were more likely to rise than fall. I was half right: Home values have been inching up since the spring, but mortgage rates, incredibly, dropped further.

By August (the latest numbers available) the median home price had risen 1% over a year ago, but 30-year rates had dropped a half-point to 4.5%. Assuming 20% down and a 30-year mortgage, the total cost of owning a median-priced home is now down $16,000 from a year ago.

Home values may waffle over the coming year, but because Americans take out such large, long mortgages, rates are what really matter. And I am more likely to grow hair than see 30-year mortgage rates drop below 4%. It's far more likely that rates (and the cost of ownership) will rise.

Now for question No. 2: Is a house a good investment?

First, it depends on what you mean by investment. If your definition is strictly about dollars returned, a house probably won't be a great use of your capital. If you bought the median-priced house today with 20% down, to recoup your total costs (and I'm not including property taxes and maintenance here) over three decades, the home's value would have to rise about 3% a year.

That's likely, but you'll almost certainly (we all hope) do much better than that in the stock market. The fact is, however, that that's the normal case for housing; the booms that began after World War II and in the late 1990s were the exceptions.

That said, the key point to remember is this: Buying a fairly priced home at today's rates may be the best deal you will ever get. And who knows? It may even turn out to be a good investment.



Courtesy of CNNMoney

Inflation: How will it affect the Whidbey Island Housing Market

"INFLATION IS WHEN YOU PAY $15 FOR THE $10 HAIRCUT YOU USED TO GET FOR $5 WHEN YOU HAD HAIR." - Sam Ewing. And regardless of how much hair you have these days... one thing we can watch to help a get sense of where rates are going is inflation.

Right now, the headline numbers in the US show little inflation overall... but we are already seeing significant inflation in particular items like commodities, food, and oil - which are being driven by a weak US Dollar, and increasing demand from emerging countries like China and India. In addition, the global market reacted late last week to higher-than-expected inflation in China. This is important to us because Bonds and home loan rates hate inflation, no matter where the whiff of it comes from.

Here’s why. Think of inflation as a hot air balloon and rates as the basket under that balloon. As the balloon (or inflation) rises, the basket (or rates) must rise as well.

So, if inflation moves higher in China, their government has to raise rates to fight inflation. And if rates move higher in China, global investors seeking the highest yield will move away from the relatively meager returns seen in US Bonds - and move their Bond buying money into juicier yields found abroad.

There are so many opinions by so many smart people on both sides of the inflation argument, but right now it is all about what the Bond market thinks. And the recent market action shows just how quickly sentiment in the market can change. Remember, it was just a few weeks ago that fears and whispers of deflation helped the Bond market - and home loan rates - improve.

But now with the Fed intent on avoiding deflation and in fact creating inflation through another round of Quantitative Easing (or QE2), the entire Bond market - including Mortgage Bonds - have began to react negatively. Remember, Quantitative Easing is the concept of the Fed becoming a buyer of Treasuries and Bonds, in a bid to stimulate the economy by:

• Creating inflation


• Lowering the unemployment rate


• Raising Stock prices

While those goals may be good for the overall economy, we need to remember that all three are very unfriendly to Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates.

The good news is, despite ending the week worse than where they started, home loan rates are still near historic lows for the time being. If you or someone you know is looking to take advantage of low rates, now is the time. Please call (360-675-5811) or email me today to get started.

Info courtesy of: AlaskaUSA Mortgage

Consequences That May Impact Consumers Looking to Purchase or Refinance a Home in the Future

For months there has been an ever-growing fear that our economy is headed towards deflation, which is when prices on goods and services are falling lower. Deflation is the exact opposite of inflation, which of course occurs when prices climb higher. Remember, inflation is the arch-enemy of Bonds, so fears of inflation negatively impact Bond prices and home loan rates. But fears of deflation are good for Bonds and home loan rates. That’s because the fixed payment that a Bond provides to an investor goes further in a deflationary environment. So, the recent fears of deflation have helped Bond prices move higher and home loan rates move lower.


But last week, future deflation/inflation expectations changed... and investors in the Bond market started betting that the Fed will be successful in "creating inflation" via their Quantitative Easing plans, and will thus avoid continuing down a deflationary road. This was evidenced by the results of last week’s 5-Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) auction, which saw investors buying TIPS at a premium since they were confident they’d be able to benefit from the increased inflation that should result from the QE2.

Of course, investors aren’t the only ones impacted by this. The media has already been chattering that the Fed has to be careful not to let inflation get out of control in the coming months and years. In fact, just last week, there was a headline explaining how another round of Quantitative Easing brings the risk of "unleashing the 1970s inflation genie." Consumers who are looking to purchase or refinance a house should also take note of that possibility - since even talk of inflation can impact home loan rates negatively. After all, a rise in inflation would be bad for Mortgage Bonds and, as a result, for home loan rates.

The good news is that home loan rates are still near historic lows for the time being. If you or someone you know would like to see how you can benefit from the current situation, call or email us today.

Information courtesy of Alaska USA Mortgage

What the Latest Fed. Meeting Meant to the Market

It's been said there's a pot of gold at the end of every rainbow. Yet, after last week's regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed helped gold seem more "charmed" than ever. What happened, and what does this mean for home loan rates? As expected, last week the Fed decided to keep the Fed Funds Rate (which is the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, and it is used as a base rate that many other lending rates are based on) at 0.25%. The Fed also reiterated that economic conditions warrant keeping the Fed Funds Rate low for an "extended period".
But the Fed's Policy Statement was clearly more downbeat on the economy and showed greater deflationary concerns than the previous Fed Statement. It also gave the feeling that the Fed will jump in with more Quantitative Easing (QE) if necessary. QE means the Fed is prepared to create Dollars through Treasury purchases, which in turn causes the Dollar to weaken. And last week, in response to the Fed's statement, we saw precious metals like Gold and Silver move higher as a hedge against a weaker US Dollar.
But, the Fed's Statement is also significant because another round of QE by the Fed could mean continued good news for Bonds and home loan rates. What's more, last Friday, respected hedge fund manager, David Tepper, noted that the shift in the Fed's statement also puts Stocks in an almost "no lose" position.
Why is this? Should the economy improve, Stocks go up. But should the economy weaken, and the Fed jumps in with more QE, Stocks could also benefit because more QE alongside a weaker economy brings the Dollar index down, making our exports more attractive. This will greatly help large US multi-national corporations, which have a high influence on the major US Stock indices. The Fed clearly has some big decisions to make in the coming weeks and months to help ensure our continued recovery, and I'll be watching closely to see how Bonds and home rates are affected. Last week, for instance, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week about .125 percent better than where they began.
Another thing to note - there was a mix of housing news last week. Housing Starts rose 10.5% in August from July, which was above expectations and was the highest level in 4 months. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, gained 1.8% and were also better than anticipated. In addition, New Home Sales came in near expectations, while Existing Home Sales were slightly above expectations - but still 19% below the sales pace of a year ago. Also, the inventory of unsold homes was reported at an 11.6 month supply for existing homes and an 8.6 month supply for new homes. Remember: The level of improvement in housing is a big indication of the strength of our economic recovery.

Information provided by: Lyn Bankowski