How's The Oak Harbor Real Estate Market (Part 1)

I am often asked, "How's The Real Estate Market in Oak Harbor?"

I was recently asked to speak at the Rotary Luncheon about the state of the real estate market in Oak Harbor. My speaking engagement was postponed for a few weeks, but I thought I would share some of the information in this blog. I will continue with a second blog that will address another area that affects the real estate market, Short Sales and Bank Owned Properties.

The first answer that I have after someone asks me about the real estate market is, "It depends". Now I am not trying to be flippant with that statement, but my answer really does depend on if you are a buyer, a seller, when you bought your home, etc.

• If you are a buyer, the question is a no brainer. The Oak Harbor Real Estate Market is fantastic. In fact, I just helped my niece and her family make a purchase of a home. Interest rates are at all time lows (though they are starting to creep up). There is a large supply of inventory on the market for sale right now and sellers are being very generous in their negotiations.

• If you are a seller and you have owned your home for at least 10 years, than it is a good market. As you can see from the chart, home prices have appreciated 3-4% average over the last 10 years. So if you need to sell, than from an investment perspective, you have made a good decision and the Real Estate Market is good. 

• If you are a seller and you haven't owned your home for more than 5 years, than the value of your home is probably equal to or less than your original purchase price and you might want to consider other alternatives to selling, such as rent, or not moving. If you are in this situation than the Oak Harbor Real Estate Market is not so good but is getting better.

A large component of the Oak Harbor Real Estate Market is Short Sales and Bank Owned Properties. In my next post, I will explain the statistics for these sales and how they are affecting our market.

Contributed By: Rick Schutte
Owner/Designated Broker Coldwell Banker Koetje Real Estate

Buying a Home Now Is A No-Brainer

Is now the right time to invest in a house?
Trick question. Actually, it's two questions.
Question No. 1: Is now the time to buy?
Question No. 2: Is buying a house a good investment?



The first answer is easy: With a few exceptions, if you have 20% to put down and good credit, now is a great time to buy. That's been the case all year, and I'd argue that we're probably closer to the end than to the beginning of the really great time. Let me explain.

Back in January home prices had dropped 28% from their peak. More important, interest rates were at historical lows. By locking in a mortgage for 15 or 30 years on a value-priced home, you were getting an incredible deal, even if home prices decreased.

At the time, I thought that prices and rates were more likely to rise than fall. I was half right: Home values have been inching up since the spring, but mortgage rates, incredibly, dropped further.

By August (the latest numbers available) the median home price had risen 1% over a year ago, but 30-year rates had dropped a half-point to 4.5%. Assuming 20% down and a 30-year mortgage, the total cost of owning a median-priced home is now down $16,000 from a year ago.

Home values may waffle over the coming year, but because Americans take out such large, long mortgages, rates are what really matter. And I am more likely to grow hair than see 30-year mortgage rates drop below 4%. It's far more likely that rates (and the cost of ownership) will rise.

Now for question No. 2: Is a house a good investment?

First, it depends on what you mean by investment. If your definition is strictly about dollars returned, a house probably won't be a great use of your capital. If you bought the median-priced house today with 20% down, to recoup your total costs (and I'm not including property taxes and maintenance here) over three decades, the home's value would have to rise about 3% a year.

That's likely, but you'll almost certainly (we all hope) do much better than that in the stock market. The fact is, however, that that's the normal case for housing; the booms that began after World War II and in the late 1990s were the exceptions.

That said, the key point to remember is this: Buying a fairly priced home at today's rates may be the best deal you will ever get. And who knows? It may even turn out to be a good investment.



Courtesy of CNNMoney

Consequences That May Impact Consumers Looking to Purchase or Refinance a Home in the Future

For months there has been an ever-growing fear that our economy is headed towards deflation, which is when prices on goods and services are falling lower. Deflation is the exact opposite of inflation, which of course occurs when prices climb higher. Remember, inflation is the arch-enemy of Bonds, so fears of inflation negatively impact Bond prices and home loan rates. But fears of deflation are good for Bonds and home loan rates. That’s because the fixed payment that a Bond provides to an investor goes further in a deflationary environment. So, the recent fears of deflation have helped Bond prices move higher and home loan rates move lower.


But last week, future deflation/inflation expectations changed... and investors in the Bond market started betting that the Fed will be successful in "creating inflation" via their Quantitative Easing plans, and will thus avoid continuing down a deflationary road. This was evidenced by the results of last week’s 5-Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) auction, which saw investors buying TIPS at a premium since they were confident they’d be able to benefit from the increased inflation that should result from the QE2.

Of course, investors aren’t the only ones impacted by this. The media has already been chattering that the Fed has to be careful not to let inflation get out of control in the coming months and years. In fact, just last week, there was a headline explaining how another round of Quantitative Easing brings the risk of "unleashing the 1970s inflation genie." Consumers who are looking to purchase or refinance a house should also take note of that possibility - since even talk of inflation can impact home loan rates negatively. After all, a rise in inflation would be bad for Mortgage Bonds and, as a result, for home loan rates.

The good news is that home loan rates are still near historic lows for the time being. If you or someone you know would like to see how you can benefit from the current situation, call or email us today.

Information courtesy of Alaska USA Mortgage

First-Time homebuyers stoke demand for smaller homes

First-time homebuyers are contributing to an increase in demand for smaller and less expensive new homes, according to research from economists at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Delving into data from the most recent biennial American Housing Survey, which was conducted by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau in 2009, the study, "Characteristics of New and First-Time Home Buyers," finds that 41 percent of the 8.4 million households who bought a home between 2007 and 2009 were first-time buyers.

The market share of first-timers was up from 35 percent in both 2005 and 2007. Although some of the demand was fueled by the initial version of the home buyer tax credit in mid-2008, which was specifically targeted to those buying a home for the first time, the upward trend is expected to continue as children of baby boomers - members of a generation that is larger than their parents' - move into their household formation years in the period ahead.

First-time buyers for the two years of the study had an average age of 34, compared to 46 for those trading up. The average income of first-timers was over $67,000, about 30 percent below the average household income of trade-up buyers of $97,000. About half of the first-time buyers earned less than $60,000.

The household size of both first-time and trade-up buyers has been declining, while single-person households have been on the rise. First-timers bought homes with an average market value of about $184,000, compared to more than $297,000 for trade-up buyers. First-time buyers bought homes averaging 1,874 square feet, significantly below the 2,549-square-foot home purchased on average by those trading up. Forty-six percent of first-timers bought homes smaller than 1,500 square feet.

The full report is available here.